2026 won’t be extreme but prepare for a plot twist when you least expect it
If you’ve been wondering what the markets might throw at us next year, you’re in good company. Thomas Veillet has been digging into the data, reading the room, and connecting the dots. According to him, 2026 is shaping up to be one of those ‘stay awake, stay flexible’ market years. Here’s his take.
Equities: Still positive, just less hyped up
Markets have been acting like they’ve had three too many espressos lately, with all the usual swings, hype and panic. But 2026 looks set to be a year of controlled optimism.
In short:
The outlook for 2026 hinges on 3 factors: the direction of interest rates, the resilience of global growth, and the ability of AI to deliver on its promises rather than fizzling out like a failed soufflé.
Equities should remain positive, especially if interest rates continue to fall. Just don’t expect fireworks. There is confidence, but there is also doubt — and when markets start to doubt, volatility loves to sneak in.
This is why the more ‘sensible’ sectors, such as healthcare and everyday consumer goods, could thrive. What about the big tech and AI champs? They’re still strong, but they might finally be due a rest after running at full speed for years.
In short:
- Companies remain generally solid.
- Earnings are still rising, but at a slower pace than in 2024–25.
- Valuations are high, particularly in tech and AI, and in some cases too high, so investors should proceed with caution.
- No crash is on the horizon, but it is not a time for blind optimism either.
The outlook for 2026 hinges on 3 factors: the direction of interest rates, the resilience of global growth, and the ability of AI to deliver on its promises rather than fizzling out like a failed soufflé.
Equities should remain positive, especially if interest rates continue to fall. Just don’t expect fireworks. There is confidence, but there is also doubt — and when markets start to doubt, volatility loves to sneak in.
This is why the more ‘sensible’ sectors, such as healthcare and everyday consumer goods, could thrive. What about the big tech and AI champs? They’re still strong, but they might finally be due a rest after running at full speed for years.
Interest rates: Returning to normal(ish)
If you want to get a feel for where the markets might be heading in 2026, start by looking at interest rates. They have been the main driver for two years now, with central banks wavering between making small cuts and waiting. The trend is now shifting towards slow, steady reductions, which generally gives markets some breathing room.
In 2026, we can expect more rate cuts, but at a careful pace: slow enough to test investors’ patience and fast enough to make cautious people sweat. Rates matter because they act like market gravity. When they fall, assets can climb more easily. When they rise, everything feels heavier and harder to push upwards.
So, in 2026, you can expect:
However, nothing is set in stone. Just one geopolitical shock, energy spike or sudden economic wobble and central banks won’t hesitate to tighten things again.
In 2026, we can expect more rate cuts, but at a careful pace: slow enough to test investors’ patience and fast enough to make cautious people sweat. Rates matter because they act like market gravity. When they fall, assets can climb more easily. When they rise, everything feels heavier and harder to push upwards.
So, in 2026, you can expect:
- gradual rate cuts throughout the year.
- inflation easing back towards the 2% target range.
- a calmer, slightly more predictable environment for investors.
However, nothing is set in stone. Just one geopolitical shock, energy spike or sudden economic wobble and central banks won’t hesitate to tighten things again.
Commodities: Cooling down without crashing
After two chaotic years, the commodities market is finally looking a bit calmer in 2026 — with a few bumps along the way, because markets love drama.
Oil: Settling into its comfort zone
Oil prices seem ready to stabilise at around 70–90 USD per barrel. It’s a level that most major players, from Saudi Arabia to the US to Iran, can live with. Everyone has realised that extreme highs or lows just make life harder for everyone.
Industrial metals: High demand, less hype
Copper, lithium and nickel are still in high demand thanks to AI, data centres and electric cars. However, the wild price spikes are finally cooling off. Prices could stabilise with a slight upward trend, unless China tightens its grip on rare earths again, which would shake things up pretty quickly.
Gold: The market’s emotional support animal
Gold continues to do what gold does best: remain calm when markets don’t. Then it steps in like, ‘I’ve got you, babe!’ In 2026, expect to see a few new highs. Nothing dramatic, but a steady upward trend, helped by central banks stocking up on the yellow metal.
Geopolitics: The uninvited guest that runs the show
To get a feel for 2026, don’t just watch the markets; watch the map too. The next big shake-up is far more likely to come from geopolitics than earnings reports.
United States
Trump is back in the White House, and predictability isn’t exactly his forte. New tariffs, pressure on the Fed and protectionist moves could bring back the tense atmosphere of his first term. Add to that the upcoming exit of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and there’s a big dose of uncertainty on the horizon.
China
China’s economy is still shaky, particularly in the property sector, but the government is investing heavily to maintain stability and stay ahead in technology. Tensions between the US and China aren’t cooling either. Chip restrictions remain in place, yet even Nvidia’s CEO admits that China is catching up faster than expected. Definitely one to watch.
Middle East
The region remains a major wildcard. When things stay calm, markets usually breathe a little easier. However, if tensions flare up, especially concerning oil, the shockwaves hit global markets quickly. It’s an area that simply cannot be ignored, as small sparks can turn into significant market reactions.
The big questions hanging over 2026
Behind all the charts, forecasts and ‘maybe-if’ scenarios, three big questions will shape next year’s mood. These are the ones worth keeping on your radar:
1. Can global growth keep going?
This is the heavyweight question. Over the past few years, markets have been boosted by two things: falling interest rates and a handful of tech giants growing as though they had discovered a cheat code.
In 2025 alone, tech companies spent almost 400 billion USD building new data centres to fuel AI’s insatiable appetite. In 2026, this figure is expected to rise to 520 billion USD — it’s basically like printing money for servers.
The US economy still looks solid, but small cracks are showing: slower hiring and softer growth. Nothing dramatic, but definitely worth paying attention to.
Europe is lagging behind, while China is pumping cash into its economy in an attempt to keep pace.
In 2025 alone, tech companies spent almost 400 billion USD building new data centres to fuel AI’s insatiable appetite. In 2026, this figure is expected to rise to 520 billion USD — it’s basically like printing money for servers.
The US economy still looks solid, but small cracks are showing: slower hiring and softer growth. Nothing dramatic, but definitely worth paying attention to.
Europe is lagging behind, while China is pumping cash into its economy in an attempt to keep pace.
2. AI: Bubble or the real deal?
AI is everywhere: in apps, in headlines, in investors’ dreams. Everyone believes in it… perhaps a little too much. Markets have been throwing money at anything labelled ‘AI’, sometimes without asking too many questions. That’s why 2026 could be the year when we finally get to the bottom of things: Who is actually innovating, and who is just surfing the hype wave? Even some of the analysts who were starry-eyed last year are starting to raise eyebrows.
3. Can central banks land this plane smoothly?
This might be the trickiest challenge of all. Central banks need to continue cutting rates to support growth, but not so much that inflation wakes up again and asks for round two.
So far, the Fed is performing a decent balancing act. It has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is prepared to intervene if necessary. Europe, however, has a tougher path: low growth, limited scope for further cuts and additional tension arising from shifts in global trade. If central banks get it right, we could see stable markets, controlled inflation and gentle growth. If they don’t, well, let’s just say you might want to keep your seatbelt loosely fastened.
So far, the Fed is performing a decent balancing act. It has stopped shrinking its balance sheet and is prepared to intervene if necessary. Europe, however, has a tougher path: low growth, limited scope for further cuts and additional tension arising from shifts in global trade. If central banks get it right, we could see stable markets, controlled inflation and gentle growth. If they don’t, well, let’s just say you might want to keep your seatbelt loosely fastened.
Gold continues to do what gold does best: remain calm when markets don’t. Then it steps in like, ‘I’ve got you, babe!’
Yuh’s tip: Make 2026 work for you
So, here’s the deal: 2026 isn’t set to be a party, but it won’t be a disaster either. It’s one of those in-between years that’s mostly calm, but with a few surprises.
If you’re investing, this is not the year for reckless bets. But it’s definitely not the year to sit on the sidelines, either. The real winning move lies somewhere in the middle: be steady, be curious and be ready to adapt.
A few smart moves for 2026:
- Diversify like it’s your superpower. Spread your risk and your peace of mind.
- Invest small but consistently. With Yuh, you can start with as little as 10 CHF.
- Create spaces to keep your goals organised and prevent your emotions from driving the bus.
Earn Swissqoins every time you invest or pay with Yuh — tiny perks for smart moves.
Keep learning through YuhLearn, so the markets feel way less intimidating.
The vibe for 2026?
Stay alert, stay flexible, and don’t be afraid to take calm, calculated steps forward.
Or, as Warren Buffett famously said:
‘Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.’
In a year like 2026, that mindset could be your quiet advantage.